Around 4,500 members of the Likud Central Committee will be eligible to vote today (Thursday) on the proposal from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister Haim Katz, who also chairs the Constitution Committee and the Likud Center, to grant the party leader personal reserved spots and approve the primaries bylaws. Under the unprecedented plan, Netanyahu would receive eight reserved spots, with three placed in the top ten and three in the second ten.

Standing against the Netanyahu-Katz proposal is MK David Bitan, chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, who insists the reserved spots should be rejected. "Since we began discussing reserved spots, Likud has slipped further in the polls," Bitan said. "This will not lift the list higher. It will drag us down."

Because the vote is secret and involves thousands of center members, Netanyahu faces the risk that party interests may outweigh loyalty to him. Center members understand that his reserved spots would reduce opportunities for themselves or colleagues seeking district slots, pushing some backward or eliminating them altogether.

If the proposal passes the center, Netanyahu can claim a clear victory and shape the Likud list through personal appointments, including one for Minister Haim Katz. Should it fail, a genuine crisis would unfold, leaving three main paths: Netanyahu could resubmit the measure to the Constitution Committee and then back to the Likud Center (a plausible option), accept the center's decision and drop the reserved spots (unlikely), or follow Ariel Sharon's example by leaving Likud to form a new party (a remote possibility).

A source close to the prime minister acknowledged awareness that the decision might not pass yet stressed Netanyahu has no intention of backing down. "The list needs refreshing," Netanyahu told Constitution Committee members. "During a visit to the north I stopped for falafel, and even the vendor shared his view." If the proposal falls, Netanyahu is expected to restart the process quickly by returning it to the committee and then to another center vote. This explains his decision to delay the primaries by two weeks, moving them from August 4 to August 17 and allowing time for internal procedures if needed.

Another route would see Netanyahu respect the center's democratic choice and run fully open primaries without reserved spots or district disruptions. Likud insiders maintain that Netanyahu remains determined to secure the spots and will not abandon the demand even if defeated today. A senior party figure noted Netanyahu's strong belief that the current list composition weakens his election prospects. "The makeup of the list could hurt us at the ballot box," he said in private discussions.

An unrealistic scenario involves Netanyahu repeating Sharon's 2005 move by exiting Likud and launching a new party. Some in his circle briefly considered the idea, though only as a psychological tool or classic spin. It might serve to signal potential departure if demands are unmet, yet Netanyahu has no real plan to abandon Likud.